Football Analysis

Methodology

The statistical model estimates expected goals from completed competition matches available before each prediction's data cutoff. It uses a Poisson score grid to derive 1X2, totals, both-teams-to-score and double-chance probabilities.

Sample sizes and missing fields are shown with published analysis. Missing injuries or lineups remain unknown. Explanations describe the model evidence; they do not change its numbers. The current baseline is uncalibrated and is not a guarantee of outcomes.

Only a reviewed, approved analysis with eligible real data can be published. Performance reports defined metrics and sample size when results exist.